Is the lateness of Southern Rail's Brighton train a mathematical certainty?

Is the lateness of Southern Rail's Brighton train a mathematical certainty?

A bookmaker has offered odds of 7/2 that Southern’s Brighton to London train will leave late every day next year. So what’s the probability of arriving on time?

The other day, the Guardian live blog’s coverage of the Southern Rail strike included the news that a certain bookmaker was offering odds of 7/2 that the 07:29 Southern Rail Brighton to London Victoria train would leave late every day next year. That struck me ask remarkable. If those odds are correct that means there is a 22% chance that train will never leave on time next year.

That seems an awfully high chance. But then again, that same train failed to arrive into Victoria on time EVERY single day of 2014, so maybe it is plausible. So that got me wondering: what is the probability of the train arriving on time on any given day, given these odds offered by the bookmaker?

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Source: Guardian Transport

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